Countdown To 97

As I stood there that cold winter afternoon 49 years ago, little did I realize, let alone understand, the significance of those hundreds of barrels of crude (light gravity 38 degrees, lube stock, I'll have you know) going up in smoke. This was to herald the new knowledge of millions of barrels which we would soon start finding in astonishing amounts. As a junior geologist, to paraphrase Gibby Gibson, "we did not speak unless we were spoken to." I was totally ignorant of the machinations of Imperial Oil's Geophysical Department and had to wait until 1977 when I saw the October 1946 super secret plat. Ray Walters, the Wizard, had selected the well site from this plat (though even he did not know what the anomaly meant). Hundreds of farmers showed up with horse blankets spread over their 1929 Essexs, possibly with the idea that they were going to share in the mineral wealth. But this privilege had been granted to relatively few homesteaders, none of whom realized their good fortune prior to September 1946 (when Imperial started trying to sign them up). Now, with nearly 50 years behind us, several major disturbing conclusions must be drawn:The main Devonian Reefs were found within 7 years of Leduc and within a 50 mile radius of Edmonton. They comprise 20% of the known crude reserves of the Province. These giant accumulations are all but depleted.Alberta, the home of the Devonian Reef, has been unable, over the past 30 years, to discover any accumulations on the scale of Leduc or Redwater.So-called ‘statistical experts’ may be allowing Rome to bum as the crude pipeline capacity to the east is increased. These additions are no longer required because of conventional reserve additions, but rather from such arcane items as horizontal drilling and sliptivity chemicals to counteract the viscosities of the heavier crudes which are replacing conventional. In broad historical perspective, the 50th anniversary of the discovery of Leduc should be observed next February (1997), as less of an achievement than a "blip" on the reserve curve, the direction of which will continue to climb due only to tar sands and heavy oil. And what of 2047, the 100th anniversary of Leduc? All the conventional crude will have long since been exhausted, and the Leduc "blip" on the reserve curve will have lost its significance. Instead of airy promises of undiscovered conventional crude, all eyes should be focussed on the growing importance of the tar sands. They were there 250 years ago when the first explorers tramped through northeast Alberta. They are now required to assure Canada's future liquid hydrocarbon self-sufficiency.