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The distribution of fossil fuels in a large country such as Canada where thesources of coal, gas and oil are remote from the principal thermal energymarkets poses many complex problems, most of which centre upon the matter oftransportation. Even the matter of transportation of such competing fuelspresents a remarkably complex inter-play of a large number of major and minorvariables. In the present study, a computer model was devised to examine theeffect of the principal variables, on-site costs, growth rates and time, and tointerpret these in terms of the results which would be expected to arise fromscientific and technological advances over and above those to be expected inthe ordinary year-to- year developments in the transportation industry. To dothis, a reference distribution for the three competing fuels was established byselecting specific values for the several variables on the basis of pasthistory and considered judgment. This was then projected three decades into thefuture. The effect of the several variables was examined, and apparently themost significant were the on-site cost of crude oil and natural gas, and thegrowth rates for the same costs. The reference picture indicated a Steadytakeover of the thermal energy market by coal, with the coal market extendingover a 2,000-mile radius within about twenty years. Evaluation of hypotheticalresearch advances over and above the normal year-to-year advances indicatedthat only in the field of coal transportation was there likely to be a markedresponse to these advances. Therefore, special funds and energies might well bedirected toward this area of transportation research, but only on the clearunderstanding that successful research would only hasten the establishment ofan energy market pattern which is likely to come about in due course, in anycase.

A Computer Model for Evaluating the Impact of Fossil Fuel Transportation Research