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In 2001, Canada was the largest supplier of oil to the US, just ahead of Saudi Arabia. About one out of every ten barrels used in the US comes from Canada. Emerging technology for partial upgrading of bitumen may play a significant role in future developments to expand oil sands production for domestic use and export. Oil Sands Constraints Figure 1 indicates that unconstrained oil sands production could increase to 3.5 million bbls/d based on $50 billion of announced projects. As early as 2004, diluent supply and existing refinery capacity could constrain production. By 2006, existing pipelines, including planned expansions, may be insufficient to transport unconstrained oil sands growth. In order to unleash this potential, four significant aspects need attention:Establish new refinery conversion capacity and markets;Solve the diluent shortage constraint;Expand the pipeline delivery system; and,CO2 emissions. Partial Upgrading Benefits Partial upgrading has the potential to improve the economics of bitumen recovery, especially for smaller scale projects that cannot support synthetic crude upgrading. By-product heat from partial upgrading can reduce or eliminate the need for expensive natural gas to produce steam for SAGD. Partially upgraded bitumen may be attractive in a wider range of refineries, providing access to new markets, and may double the number of refineries currently using bitumen to produce fuels. Partial upgrading can lower the viscosity and density of bitumen to meet pipeline specifications, eliminating blending with diluent. Pipeline Takeaway Capacity The Enbridge Athabasca oil sands system is expected to reach 570,000 bbl/d in the next few years. A new "hot bitumen" line could add 350,000 bbl/d. But even with this growth to serve existing markets, additional initiatives may be needed to capture the full potential of the oil sands. Accordingly, Enbridge, together with shippers and producers, are looking at entirely new markets, such as California and Asia Pacific, that could absorb up to 400,000 bbl/d over the next decade. Technology of Partial Upgrading The increasing production of bitumen, shortage of diluent and potential to integrate field upgrading with bitumen production has created a "landslide" of innovation for partial upgrading methods. Table 1 shows 18 emerging technologies at various stages of development. Mid-Stream Polisher The mid-stream polisher concept is a straddle plant to stabilize olefins in cracked product by mild hydrotreating. This would add value and make the product more attractive in the refinery market. It would allow the product to be transported as normal crude (without special buffering procedures and dedicated tanks) via pipeline and, potentially, ocean tanker. Economic Advantage Figure 2 shows a wellhead netback comparison of SAGD combined with partially upgraded product to conventional SAGD. The comparison is for SAGD, combined with a generic 25,000 bbl/d partial upgrader that produces a cracked product which meets pipeline specifications without diluent via a mid-stream polisher and providing by-product heat, to replace $3.50/mcf natural gas used for steam generation. The plot suggests that partial upgrading may add significant value at WTI-bitumen differentials above $6 - $8/bbl.

Removing Constraints on Oil Sands Potential: Pipeline Transportation of Emerging Partially Upgraded Bitumen