Projection of AIDS incidence in women in New York State. | Zendy

L Lessner | Zendy

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Projection of AIDS incidence in women in New York State.

Author(s) -

L Lessner

Publication year - 1991

Publication title -

american journal of public health

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.284

H-Index - 264

eISSN - 1541-0048

pISSN - 0090-0036

DOI - 10.2105/ajph.81.suppl.30

Subject(s) - demography , seroprevalence , incidence (geometry) , population , medicine , fertility , ethnic group , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , immunology , mathematics , serology , antibody , geometry , sociology , anthropology

The results of the Newborn HIV Seroprevalence Study in New York State for 1988 were used to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of childbearing age in 1988. The estimate was accomplished for each of 80 age, racial/ethnic, and geographic strata by dividing the number of seropositive newborns by the 1988 estimated fertility rate. Summing across strata yielded a total of 23,430 infected women age 15 to 44 years in 1988. From this estimate a tree model was used to estimate the number of women infected during 1981-88. Back calculation was used to distribute these infections over time, and the selected incubation distribution was used to estimate future AIDS cases for this population: 8,295 cases by 1993.

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