Results of routine restaurant inspections can predict outbreaks of foodborne illness: the Seattle-King County experience.

To analyze the association between the results of routine inspections and foodborne outbreaks in restaurants, we conducted a matched case-control study using available data from Seattle-King County, Washington. Case restaurants were facilities with a reported foodborne outbreak between January 1, 1986 and March 31, 1987 (N = 28). Two control restaurants with no reported outbreaks during this period were matched to each case restaurant on county health district and date of routine inspection (N = 56). Data from the routine inspection that preceded the outbreak (for case restaurants) or the date-matched routine inspection (for control restaurants) were abstracted from computerized inspection records. Case restaurants had a significantly lower mean inspection score (83.8 on a 0 to 100 point scale) than control restaurants (90.9). Restaurants with poor inspection scores and violations of proper temperature controls of potentially hazardous foods were, respectively, five and ten times more likely to have outbreaks than restaurants with better results. Although this study demonstrates that Seattle-King County's routine inspection form can successfully identify restaurants at increased risk of foodborne outbreaks, it also illustrates that more emphasis on regulation and education is needed to prevent outbreaks in restaurants with poor inspection results.