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Earthquakes occur in a complex hierarchical fault system, meaning that a realistic mechanically-consistent model is required to describe heterogeneity simply and over a wide scale. We developed a simple conceptual mechanical model using fractal circular patches associated with fracture energy on a fault plane. This model explains the complexity and scaling relation in the dynamic rupture process. We also show that such a fractal patch model is useful in simulating longterm seismicity in a hierarchal fault system by using external loading. In these studies, an earthquake of any magnitude appears as a completely random cascade growing from a small patch to larger patches. This model is thus potentially useful as a benchmarking scenario for evaluating probabilistic gain in probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The model is applied to the real case of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on prior information from a seismicity catalog to reproduce the complex rupture process of this very large earthquake and its resulting ground motion. Provided that a high-quality seismicity catalog is available for other regions, similar approach using this conceptual model may provide scenarios for other potential large earthquakes.

Modeling Earthquakes Using Fractal Circular Patch Models with Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake