Development of Japan’s Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios in 2030

There is a strong need to address climate change issues by mobilizing a variety of technologies, including renewable energy technologies. In this paper, we focus on photovoltaic (PV) technology because solar cells or PV panels are already popular in many countries, mainly incentivized by a feed-in tariff (FIT) program and low production cost. However, it is difficult to accurately predict future PV installation capacity for a region because of a variety of uncertainties, such as national energy policies and consumers’ lifestyles. Taking such uncertainties into account, this paper takes a scenario design approach to analyze future PV deployment, thereby helping to examine policy implications and offering appropriate actions. A case study of Japan’s PV deployment scenarios up to 2030 is presented here. Four distinct future situations are assumed, with particular focus on technological advancement and national share of nuclear energy. The results show that solar power generation in 2030 could account for 3.4%–7.4% of the national electricity demand.