Countering Islamic State Messaging Through “Linkage-Based” Analysis

The Islamic State’s recent losses on the battlefield, including significant casualties within its media and propaganda division, offer a unique opportunity to inject competing and alternative messages into the information space. This paper proposes that the content of such messages should be guided by a linkage-based analysis of existing Islamic State messaging. A linkage-based analysis of a top-level 2017 audio message by Islamic State spokesperson Abu Hasan al Muhajir offers several potential insights into crafting effective content for competing and alternative messages. A comparison of the 2017 work to earlier Islamic State messaging also reveals specific opportunities to undermine the credibility of the organisation’s broader propaganda programme by highlighting the organisation’s repeated failure to follow through on its extravagantly promised commitment to achieving its stated goals.