Mali Kural Uygulamalarının Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Etkileri(The Impacts of Fiscal Rules on Macroeconomic Variables)

Ekonomik piyasalarda kamu mudahalesi ile iliskili olan teoriler zaman icinde farklilik gostermislerdir. 1990’larda kamu harcamalari ve butce aciklarinda yasanan artislar, kamu finansmani alaninda bazi yeniliklere ihtiyac duyulmasi nedeniyle mali kural kavramini gundeme getirmistir. Bu calisma; 24 gelismis ekonomi icin dengesiz panel veri analizini kullanarak issizlik orani ve ekonomik buyume oraninin dahil edildigi makroekonomik degiskenlere mali kural uygulamalarinin etkilerini ampirik olarak ortaya koymayi amaclamistir. Bu amacla, sozkonusu ekonomilerde 1985-2012 donemi yillik verileri kullanilmistir. Yapilan analiz sonuclarina gore; ekonomik buyume, GSYH icindeki kamu borcunun orani ve GSYH icindeki kamu harcamalarinin orani degiskenleri issizlik orani uzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir etkiye sahipken; harcama kurali ve enflasyon orani negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli etkiye sahiptir. Diger taraftan, ekonomik buyume degiskeni uzerinde issizlik orani ve GSYH icindeki vergi gelirlerinin orani pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli iken butce dengesi kurali, GSYH icindeki kamu borcu orani ve GSYH icindeki kamu harcamalarinin orani degiskenleri negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir etkiye sahip olmustur. Theories associated with social interference-intervention on economic markets have differed in time. A rise of government expenditures and budget deficits in the 1990s have created some innovation needs in the field of public finance that makes definition of fiscal rule a current issue. This study empirically seek to reveal the impacts of fiscal rule practices on macroeconomic variables, including unemployment rate and economic growth for 24 developed economies by using unbalanced panel data analysis. For this purpose, the data set is annually covered for the period from 1985 to 2012 in these economies. According to consequences of this study, economic growth, government debt as a percent of GDP and government expenditure as a percent of GDP have positive and statistically significant relationship while expenditure rule and inflation rate have negative and statistically significant related to unemployment rate. On the other hand, economic growth is correlated that unemployment rate and tax revenue as percent of GDP have positive and statistically significant and, budget balance rule, government debt as a percent of GDP and government expenditure as a percent of GDP have negative and statistically significant.