Food and the Economy in Wales

Primary food production has, historically, been a relatively important part of the Welsh economy, especially beyond the industrial conurbations of the South and North-East. However, with successive changes in the supporting policy framework and fastmoving changes in both consumer tastes and retailing, agriculture in Wales has suffered a worse decline than in any other region of the UK between 1997 and 2007. As far back as 2000, Christine Gwyther’s written answer to an Assembly Question suggested that agriculture contributed 1.4% of Welsh GVA but, if subsidies were excluded, its contribution was “close to zero.” However, this ignores the fact that agriculture acts as the base of an increasingly closed supply chain embracing processing, distribution and retailing, and as an agri-food sector the contribution made is substantially greater. This paper reviews the analytic tools which can be used to demonstrate the strength of interconnections between the components of this supply chain and indicates the relative contributions of different commodities to employment and value-added in the economy of Wales. It concludes by challenging the conventional wisdom underpinning the strategy for the food and drink sectors which emphasises export-led growth.