GVA per capita Trends: Is Wales Bridging the Divide?

Other articles in this Review hint at the problems associated with gross value added as a measure of welfare, particularly when used to compare economies. This article accepts some of the problems inherent in focusing on gross value added as a measure of regional progress, but provides a consideration of how far Wales is converging with other parts of the UK on this measure. The article considers recent trends in regional income distribution and whether it has become more equitable over time. Examining regional income convergence enables us to better contextualise Wales’s recent economic performance. At the outset the analysis was undertaken with historical data, and we are mindful that the GVA series for Wales is continually being updated and revised. Notwithstanding we believe that the paper provides a snapshot of the extent to which Wales is succeeding in ‘bridging the divide’. The article has a further relevance in that when the Review was established 20 years ago gaps in economic prosperity between Wales and other parts of the UK were very much on the policy agenda. However, the divergence between Wales and other parts of the UK on conventional economic measures has been very persistent, and with Wales still well down the economic prosperity league in the UK.