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Firewood is used as a common-pool resource to satisfy local energy demands. However, crops and pastures are replacing large areas of Chaco forest at a high rate. Production is destined to satisfy global demands of energy and food, which in turn threatens local livelihoods. In this work, we explore the evolution of regional consumption and supply of firewood highly influenced by new and globalized dynamics of the soy agribusiness. In so doing we analyse two decades (1990–2010) of deforestation and firewood consumption, considering regional data on poverty conditions. We also explore future trends based on territorial zoning. As a result, we propose a regional classification that shows four realities in which the forest plays a significant role as a safety net and thus sustaining local livelihoods. Finally, we explore future regional development patterns. We call them socio-forest transitions, going towards greater use of the territory by global players and increased restrictions on access to and use of common-pool resources by locals. Our results have implications in future policy making.

Firewood supply and consumption in the context of agrarian change: the Northern Argentine Chaco from 1990 to 2010