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The paper proposes that irrigation schemes may be less resilient to environmental shocks than generally believed in the common-pool governance literature, because they are subject to positive feedback effects which may be not perceived for users timely. It builds on system dynamics literature to form a procedure to assess if the system is about to be locked into downward trajectories of loss of resilience. It concludes by suggesting that the basic ideas presented might be useful to build operational early warning signal for critical transitions not only in irrigation systems but in a wider range of systems where tipping points are suspected to exist.

Misperceptions of feedbacks and the resilience of common-pool resource systems: a discussion for irrigation systems based on loop dominance analysis