İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME İLLÜZYON MU? SİMETRİK VE ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK TESTLERİNDEN KANITLAR

Ihracata-dayali buyume hipotezi teorik ve ampirik duzeyde tartisilmaya devam etmektedir. Literaturdeki pek cok calisma ihracata-dayali buyume hipotezini, simetrik Granger nedensellik testlerini kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Bu calismada ise hem simetrik hem de asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanilmaktadir. Analiz Turkiye’nin 1997:1-2013:4 donemine ait ithalat, ihracat ve sanayi uretimi degiskenlerini kapsamaktadir. Ulasilan bulgulara gore uc degisken arasindaki nedensellik iliskileri asimetriktir. Bu nedenle simetrik nedensellik testleri kullanilan calismalarda ulasilan sonuclar illuzyon olabilir. Ayrica elde edilen bulgular ihracatin ve sanayi uretiminin ithalata bagimli olmasi nedeniyle ihracatin surdurulebilir bir bicimde buyumeyi artiramadigini gostermektedir. Yani bu calismada uzun donemde Turkiye’de ihracata-dayali buyume hipotezi desteklenememistir. Bu calismada elde edilen bulgular, Turkiye’de ihracata-dayali buyume hipotezinin gerceklesebilmesi icin ithalata bagli uretim ve ihracat yapisinin kirilmasi gerektigini ima etmektedir. Anahtar Kavramlar: Ihracata-dayali buyume hipotezi, Thirlwall kanunu, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Sanayi Uretimi. JEL Siniflandirmasi: F14, F43 IS THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH AN ILLUSION? EVIDENCES FROM SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS Abstract Export-led growth hypothesis has been discussed in theoretical and empirical levels. Lots of studies in the literature analyze the export-led growth hypothesis using symmetric Granger causality tests. However, both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests are used in this study. The analysis consists of imports, exports and industrial production variables of Turkey in the period of 1997:1-2013:4. To achieving findings, causal relations among the three variables are asymmetric. Therefore achieving findings in the paper which is using symmetric causality tests may be an illusion. Furthermore the findings indicate that exports did not raise the industrial production in a sustainable manner, since exports and production are dependent on imports. So the export-led growth hypothesis in long-term is not supported in this study. The findings achieving in this study imply that import dependent export and production structure should be break up to occur the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey. Keywords: Export-led growth hypothesis, Thirlwall law, Asymmetric causality, Industrial production. JEL Classification: F14, F43