Predictors of 30-Day Return Following an Emergency Department Visit for Older Adults

BACKGROUND Older adults who are discharged following emergency department evaluation are at increased risk for functional decline and health care utilization, and are likely to benefit from close follow-up and additional care services. Understanding factors associated with a return emergency department visit within 30 days among older fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries discharged to the community may assist in identifying patients at greatest need for interventions. METHOD Predictors from Medicare data and public sources were evaluated in a retrospective data analysis of North and South Carolina residents (2011-2012) aged ≥ 65 years using Cox regression proportion hazards ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for time-to-30-day return events. RESULTS 30-day return rates varied markedly among the 167 emergency department facilities studied (18%-39%). Predictors of 30-day return included: age (85+ versus 65-74; HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.22-1.27); male sex (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.14-1.10); non-white race (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09); Medicaid eligibility (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22); Charlson Score (3+ vs. 0; HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.30-1.36); and prior emergency department encounter (3+ vs. 0; HR, 2.35; 95% CI 2.30-2.41). LIMITATIONS This study was limited to Medicare beneficiaries in North Carolina and South Carolina, 2011-2012. Administrative claims data are limited to information required for financial reimbursement. Because we limited our study to older fee-for-service patients, our findings may not be generalizable to managed care patients and other age groups. Patients transferred to another emergency department or facility were not included in the analysis. CONCLUSION Factors predicting 30-day return to the emergency department or hospitalization suggest the potential for care transition improvement efforts to better meet patient needs, thereby potentially improving post-emergency department outcomes.