Finansal Krizlerin Sinyal Yaklaşımıyla Öngörülebilirliği: Türkiye Örneği

The aim of this study is to analyze the predictability of financial crises in the period of 1990-2016 for Turkey by using signal approach. The financial pressure index, composing of the sum of percentage changes in nominal exchange rate, interest rate and foreign exchange reserves is taken as the dependent variable. In the crisis period, the 14 economic indicators were selected and examined to foresee the finacial crises tied on the financial pressure index. Our finding is that the April 1994 Crisis and the February 2001 Crisis were successfully identified. The indicators that signaled during these crisis periods were detected to forsee and overshake financial crissis in future.