San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Simulations: A Step Toward a Standard Physical Earthquake Model

Earthquakes in California's San Francisco Bay Area are likely to be more strongly affected by elastic stress interaction than earthquakes in any other place in the world because of the region's closely spaced, sub-parallel distribution of faults. I believe therefore, that meaningful quantification of earthquake probability and hazard in the Bay Area can be made only with the guidance provided by physically-based and region-wide earthquake models that account for this interaction. This paper represents a first step in developing a Standard Physical Earthquake Model for the San Francisco Bay Area through realistic, 3000-year simulations of earthquakes on all of the area's major faults.