Is Federer Stronger in a TournamentWithout Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009 | Zendy

Christoph Leitner | Zendy; Achim Zeileis | Zendy; Kurt Hornik | Zendy

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Is Federer Stronger in a TournamentWithout Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Author(s) -

Christoph Leitner,

Achim Zeileis,

Kurt Hornik

Publication year - 2016

Publication title -

austrian journal of statistics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.342

H-Index - 9

ISSN - 1026-597X

DOI - 10.17713/ajs.v38i4.280

Subject(s) - tournament , champion , odds , mathematics , mathematical economics , economics , econometrics , statistics , combinatorics , logistic regression , political science , law

Wimbledon is one of the most popular annual sports tournament. In the Gentlemen's Single 2009 the top seeded and defending champion Rafael Nadal withdrew from the tournament due to injury days prior to the tournament. Here, we try to analyze the effects of Nadal's withdrawal especially on the ability/strength of the main competitor Roger Federer by using bookmakers expectancies to estimate the unknown abilities of the players and compare them for two different odds sets. The comparison shows that the bookmakers did not incorporate Nadal's withdrawal adequately, assigning too high expected winning probabilities to Federer and Murray.

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