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Cutaneous squamous cell cancer (SCC) affects up to 30% of kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) within 10 years of transplantation. There are no reliable clinical tests that predict those who will develop multiple skin cancers. High numbers of regulatory T cells associate with poor prognosis for patients with cancer in the general population, suggesting their potential as a predictive marker of cutaneous SCC in KTRs. We matched KTRs with (n = 65) and without (n = 51) cutaneous SCC for gender, age, and duration of immunosuppression and assessed several risk factors for incident SCC during a median follow-up of 340 days. Greater than 35 peripheral FOXP3(+)CD4(+)CD127(low) regulatory T cells/microl, &lt;100 natural killer cells/microl, and previous SCC each significantly associated with increased risk for new cutaneous SCC development (hazard ratio [HR] 2.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 5.98], HR 5.6 [95% CI 1.31 to 24], and HR 1.33 [95% CI 1.15 to 1.53], respectively). In addition, the ratio of CD8/FOXP3 expression was significantly lower in cutaneous SCC excised from KTRs (n = 25) compared with matched SCC from non-KTRs (n = 25) and associated with development of new cutaneous SCCs. In summary, monitoring components of the immune system can predict development of cutaneous SCC among KTRs.

Immune Phenotype Predicts Risk for Posttransplantation Squamous Cell Carcinoma