System dynamics simulation on municipal solid waste in Hong Kong

The municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Hong Kong (HK) is increasing at a rapid pace, resulting in health and environmental issues for the public. Compared with Singapore and Shanghai, HK has a higher MSW generation rate due to less effective measures and government policies. To forecast the MSW generation and recycling in HK, system dynamics modelling was conducted using Vensim 6.0, based on the data collected from semi-structured interviews and official reports in the Environmental Protection Department of HK, the National Environmental Agency Singapore and Shanghai Environmental Protection Agency that regularly provide statistics on waste outputs. The simulation results show that shortly the MSW in HK will increase based on the current growth rates, and along with that, recycling will also increase. The recycling rates will offset that of the MSW generation due to the closure of landfills, and MSW will be effectively recycled due to more advanced disposal techniques. The strategies developed by the HK government will be able to manage the MSW disposal, but the city will experience more severe MSW conditions in the future as its landfills are expected to close earlier than planned. Recommendations for HK to deal with MSW generation were derived from the experiences in Singapore and Shanghai.