Open AccessSimplified Prognostic Model in Patients with Oxaliplatin‐Based or Irinotecan‐Based First‐Line Chemotherapy for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A GERCOR Study
Author(s) -
Chibaudel Benoist,
Bonnetain Franck,
Tournigand Christophe,
BengrineLefevre Leila,
Teixeira Luis,
Artru Pascal,
Desramé Jérôme,
Larsen Annette K.,
André Thierry,
Louvet Christophe,
Gramont Aimery
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
the oncologist
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.176
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1549-490X
pISSN - 1083-7159
DOI - 10.1634/theoncologist.2011-0039
Subject(s) - medicine , oxaliplatin , folfox , irinotecan , folfiri , colorectal cancer , oncology , multivariate analysis , performance status , prognostic variable , proportional hazards model , chemotherapy , cancer
Learning Objectives After completing this course, the reader will be able to: Describe prognostic factors in metastatic colorectal cancer. Estimate prognostic score with a simple model using only PS and LDH as parameters.This article is available for continuing medical education credit at CME.TheOncologist.comBackground. The present study was done to establish a prognostic model for patients and trials using an oxaliplatin‐based or irinotecan‐based first‐line chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer. Patients and Methods. Eight hundred three patients treated with FOLFOX or FOLFIRI in three prospective trials were randomly separated into learning ( n = 535) and validation ( n = 268) samples. Eleven baseline variables were evaluated in univariate and multivariate analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival, and a prognostic score was developed. Results. Independent prognostic factors identified in multivariate analysis for overall survival were performance status (PS) ( p < .001), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) ( p < .001), and number of metastatic sites ( p = .005). A prognostic score based on these three variables was found efficient (Harrell's C index 0.61). This new model was improved by selecting only PS and LDH (Harrell's C index 0.64). Three risk groups for death could be identified: a low‐risk group ( n = 184; median overall survival [OS] 29.8 months), an intermediate‐risk group ( n = 223; median OS 19.5 months), and a high‐risk group ( n = 128; median OS 13.9 months). Median survival for the low‐, intermediate‐, and high‐risk groups were 26.8, 21.1, and 16.5 months, respectively, in the validation sample (Harrell's C index 0.63). Conclusions. Serum LDH level was the main prognostic factor in predicting survival, followed by WHO PS. We identified three risk groups for death depending on these two baseline parameters. This simple prognostic model can be useful for clinician's use and patient stratification in future clinical trials.