Open AccessMETHODOLOGICAL SIMPLICITY IN EXPERT SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION: The Case of Judgments and Reasoned Assumptions
Author(s) -
Doyle Jon
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
ai magazine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.597
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 2371-9621
pISSN - 0738-4602
DOI - 10.1609/aimag.v4i2.398
Subject(s) - simplicity , probabilistic logic , certainty , expert system , computer science , expert elicitation , artificial intelligence , management science , risk analysis (engineering) , engineering , mathematics , epistemology , statistics , business , philosophy , geometry
Probabilistic rules and their variants have recently supported several successful applications of expert systems, in spite of the difficulty of committing informants to particular conditional probabilities or “certainty factors,” and in spite of the experimentally observed insensitivity of system performance to perturbations of the chosen values Here we survey recent developments concerning reasoned assumptions which offer hope for avoiding the practical elusiveness of probabilistic rules while retaining theoretical power, for basing systems on the information unhesitatingly gained from expert informants, and reconstructing the entailed degrees of belief later