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The aim of the study is the forecast of the migration and population to 2096 in Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). This article is prepared on the basis of several Bayesian probabilistic projection according to the Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. The main research method is a simulation of multifactor modeling. In general, migration in the Baltic States adversely affecting the projected population. However, the influence of net migration differs between the countries. It is necessary to take into account what according to the main provisions of UN and Eurostat net migration should be minimized until 2035. If the expected minimization of net migration will not happen, decrease in population of the Baltic States could be catastrophic.

geografija ir edukacija

Simulation of Migration and Forecast of Population in the Baltic Countries by the Year 2096 / Имитационное моделирование миграций и прогноз численности населения в странах Балтии до 2096 года