CAN THE SCOPE OF POACHING BE PREDICTED ON THE BASIS OF THE EXISTING PARAMETERS

Serbia is characterized by favourable natural conditions for the management of game, whose abundance is unsatisfactory. One of the reasons for that is poaching as a harmful activity that directly affects the abundance of the main hunting game species. Although many domestic experts and researchers agree that poaching has a significant negative impact on the management of hunting game, this detrimental effect is not given adequate attention. That is why the aim of this study is to draw the attention of stakeholders to this problem. The paper tests the possibility of building a statistical model that can be used to predict the volume of poaching. On the basis of 13 variables analyzed in 129 hunting grounds, the results indicate that it is possible to predict the extent of poaching using the power regression model with three variables and a R 2 = 0.23  coefficient of determination.