Do Territorial Control and the Loss of Territory Determine the use of Indiscriminate Violence by Incumbent Actors? An Examination of the Syrian Civil War in Aleppo over 45 weeks.

This study tests the ‘control-collaboration’ model detailed by Stathis Kalyvas in The Logic of Violence in Civil War (2006). The control-collaboration model makes various theoretical claims on the relationship between territorial control and the use and motivations of violence (whether selective or indiscriminate). This study tests two of the key claims made in the model: 1. There is an inverse relationship between level of territorial control and the use of indiscriminate violence; and, 2. The loss off territory encourages the use of indiscriminate violence. Using data on civilian and child deaths taken from the ‘Syrian Martyr Database’, this study examines the relationship between territorial control and territorial loss, and the use of indiscriminate violence by incumbent (Syrian state) forces. Examining the levels of territorial control/loss and the extent of civilian and child casualties in Aleppo, Syria, results of the study largely support the theoretical assumptions outlined by Kalyvas.