Seismic Power of Tabriz Fault and Casualties in Tabriz Metropolitan Assessment by Experimental Models and GIS

In order to establishment of urban centers in high-risk earthquake zones, these cities put potentially at risk of serious injury. Most of the harmful effects caused by earthquakes are due to developing urban patterns in the fault zones. Non-considered development of urban areas in near fault regions has caused the occurrence of earthquake leads to a human tragedy. Tabriz metropolitan is Iran's only major city which is located in the susceptibility with a very high relative risk. Tabriz fault is located in the immediate vicinity of the city and some parts of the city are constructed along the fault. The Tabriz fault is a prominent tectonic feature in the vicinity of the city. Tabriz metropolitan has experienced destructive earthquakes during history as a consequence of locating in vicinity to the Tabriz fault. Today, Tabriz metropolis is extremely growing with a population of more than 2 people and many high buildings in the privacy of active fault zone. Because of the importance of the issue, in this study, seismic power of Tabriz fault and casualties in Tabriz metropolitan is estimated based on experimental models and GIS. The results demonstrate that the Tabriz fault can cause earthquakes with magnitude over 6 in the Richter scale. Assuming seismic activity Tabriz fault scenario, 1632526 casualties were estimated at night of total population in Tabriz metropolis including 858123 people dead, 774403 people injured