Longevity in Retrospect, Does Conflict Matter? A Panel Data Analysis of Different Countries’ Experiences

We investigate the predictors of longevity and how they differ between emerging and OECD countries. Five facetsof longevity are examined: infant mortality, life expectancy for males at birth, life expectancy for females at birth, life expectancy for males at age 65, and life expectancy for females at age 65. Using a country-level panel data set covering the period 1990 through 2014, a series of multivariate regression models are estimated to isolate the effects of health expenditures and other non-health inputs such as the presence of conflicts, environmental factors, lifestyle choices, demographic factors, and economic factors in determining population longevity. Among the 35 OECD countries in the sample, we find a strong negative effect of the presence of conflict on longevity, regardless of how longevity is measured. Other important determinants of longevity include health expenditures and immunizations, pharmaceutical expenditures, number of hospital beds, fertility levels, education, the level of greenhouse gases, sanitation, and the percentage of the population living in poverty. Among the 25 emerging countries in the sample, many of these same variables are important, although their marginal effects differ. We also find that the number of hospital beds significantly correlates with longevity among only emerging countries whereas education, tobacco consumption, and pharmaceutical expenditures strongly correlate with longevity in OECD countries. Conflict, total health expenditures, greenhouse gas, immunization, fertility, sanitation, alcohol consumption and poverty significantly correlate with longevity in the two groups of countries.