Developing a Simple Predictive Model for Job Growth in the Tertiary and Quaternary Sectors: Predicting Employment Based Upon Anticipated Population Growth

During times of economic growth, educators and civic leaders need a simple model for predicting employment growth in the tertiary and quaternary employment sectors, at least until more detailed predictive models can be applied. This paper proposes two simple models based on peer community and per-capita employment levels. The models are based on the assumption that employment in the tertiary and quaternary sectors is, for the most part, a by-product of population size. The proposed models allow educators to make early predictions and begin the process of recruiting, training, and educating an expanding workforce in areas most likely to need additional skilled labor.