An approach to investigate the effects of climate change on landslide hazard at a national scale (Romania)

It is widely recognized that climate change is affecting slope stability. However, there is still a great knowledge gap on landslide-climate interaction, while in data-scarce regions, like Romania, it is even less clear how landslide occurrence probability will evolve in response to climate change. The present study proposes a methodological framework for assessing the potential effects of climate change on landslide hazard at a national scale, under current (1961-2015) and future climate (2021-2050). The research approach for developing landslide hazard scenarios relies on the historical landslide inventory of the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (IGSU) (20052015), updated observational meteorological data and EUROCORDEX projections of six GCM-RCM runs under two new IPCC scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Precipitation observation and projection data are analyzed in close relation to the landslide events reported within the historical landslide inventory, in order to develop national rainfall-induced landslide hazard scenarios. Maps displaying projected climate change impacts upon landslide hazard patterns and levels are constructed. Future climate-driven evolution trends on landslide occurrences are identified and discussed. Their understanding is expected to support landslide risk management at both national and regional scales. The study was conducted in the framework of the RORISK “Disaster Risk Evaluation at National Level” project, aimed to support the fulfillment of the EU ex-ante conditionality 5.1, co-financed under the European Social Fund through the Operational Program Administrative Capacity 2014 – 2020 and coordinated by IGSU. Keywords—landslide hazard; climate change impact; national scale; extreme climate indices; Romania