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A theoretical model was developed to model the fate of two common pharmaceutical residues: diclofenac and ibuprofen in eight Estonian seaside cities that discharge their wastewaters directly into the Baltic Sea. The consumption rates of the active ingredients of diclofenac and ibuprofen from 2006-2014 were analysed. A decrease of 19.9% for diclofenac consumption and an increase of 14.1% for ibuprofen were found. The fate of diclofenac and ibuprofen were modelled by considering the human metabolism removal rate for pharmaceuticals, the removal rate of diclofenac and ibuprofen in activated sludge wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and annual flow rates. An average decrease from 1 to 0.8 µg/l (decrease of 20%) for diclofenac and an increase from 11.4 to 13.4 µg/l (increase of 14.9%) for ibuprofen for the concentration in the effluents of the WWTP were modelled. The model gives us a good overview about the theoretical concentrations of pharmaceutical residues in the environment and is helpful for evaluating environmental impacts.

Modelling diclofenac and ibuprofen residues in major Estonian seaside cities