ARMA Models for Mortality Forecast
Author(s) -
Natalja Šiškina,
Jonas Šiaulys
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
lithuanian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2029-7262
DOI - 10.15388/ljs.2016.13865
Subject(s) - longevity , mortality rate , distribution (mathematics) , demography , longevity risk , geography , medicine , gerontology , mathematics , sociology , mathematical analysis
In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA models. Research shoved that mortality rate distribution is almost the same in Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia and all of them represent longevity trends. It means that men and women, children and adults have thesame mortality structure in all Baltic countries and live longer than before.
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