Economic impact of the change in tax rate on small enterprises of manufacturing and construction sectors: Evidence from Russia 2006-2014

The hypothesis about positive influence of lower tax rate was tested on the Russian small businesses of construction and manufacturing sectors. The period from 2006 to 2014 includes the three-year gap, during which the net income tax rate was the same for all Russian regions, and the six-year interval of regionally differentiated tax rates. Quantitative estimates of the consequences of tax change without time lag, with time lags 1 and 2 year were made on the basis of double logarithmic regressions with fixed effects. Positive effect of lower tax rate was documented. The number of enterprises was the indicator, which was influenced most. A regional tax rate decrease by 1 per cent results in an increase of the number of small enterprises by 0.1-0.2%. This effect becomes evident in the first year of regional tax rate change and remains on the same level during the following two years. 1% decrease in tax rate led to 0.1% increase in the turnover of the company. Tax stimulus led to an increase of employment in manufacturing industry (the coefficient of elasticity is 0.1), while the impact on employment in construction sector was not identified. There is a potential for expanding tax revenues to the Russian budget system by increasing the taxation base with the help of the positive effect from tax rate reduction.