The Cost of LongerRun Gas Supply to Europe

Gas in Europe has always been sold above its long-run supply price. Recent lower prices, however, still permit profitable indigenous supply expansion and, as further reductions in production and transport costs from technological advances are expected, this will continue based on the exploitation of large proven and probable reserves. By 2025, indigenous output will be 60% up on 1995. Nevertheless, an average 2.2%/annum growth in gas demand will increase import dependence from 130 to 320 RCM over this period. Future international oil prices indicate gas-equivalent border values adequate to secure profitable supply from a range of external sources, leading to continuing competition for markets and the diversification of imports.