International Climate Policy at the Crossroads: Towards Success or Failure at the forthcoming 6th UNFCCC Conference of Parties in The Hague?

1 Introduction At the beginning of the new millennium climate change is at the centre of the international environmental debate. The warmest years in the past few centuries have all been in the 1990s and there is an increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters. Although there is no absolute certainty, these developments are increasingly seen as first signs that human induced climate change already takes place and that there is a need to act urgently in order to avoid the worst impacts. Diplomacy has begun to respond to the challenge. At least since 1992, climate change is on the " high priority " list of international negotiations. That year the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. Five years after, the Kyoto Protocol (KP) to the UNFCCC was adopted by delegates from 160 nations at the third Conference of the Parties (COP-3). For the first time in history, it established legally binding reduction targets for all major greenhouse gases (GHGs). While individual country commitments vary, on average industrialised countries in Annex I to the UNFCCC agreed to reduce their emissions by 5.2 % for the commitment period 2008-2012. However, as will be highlighted subsequently , there are many open questions which endanger the success of the Kyoto Protocol. Most problems are due to be solved at COP-6 in The Hague, 13-24 November 2000. This meeting is supposed to be the endpoint of the process of implementing the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA). The BAPA was adopted at COP-4 in Argentine, November 1998, and sketches out the stages for strengthening UNFCCC implementation and for specifying the Kyoto Protocol. This article provides a critical introduction to international climate policy and an analysis of recent developments, especially the last major meeting in Lyon in September 2000. Furthermore, the prospects for success of the forthcoming climate conference in The Hague are assessed. 2 Main issues at stake and recent developments One of the most important problems in international climate diplomacy is the fact that the Protocol has not yet entered into force. A " double-trigger " requires not only ratification of 55 countries; ratifying industrialised countries also have to account for at least 55 % of the total Annex I carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in 1990. Thus, action of a small number of industrialised parties is vital for entry …