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The main aim of this study was to investigate based on process-based ecosystem model simulations how management and climate change affect the growth, timber yield and carbon stocks in boreal forest ecosystem (Papers I-II). In addition, it was studied how the management affects under varying climate the possibility to meet multi-purpose demands in regard to timber production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity (in terms of dead wood) based on a stochastic multi-criteria analysis (Paper IV). Simulations were carried out in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst. L.) and silver birch (Betula pendula) stands growing in the southern and northern Finland. In addition to current climate, two different climate change scenarios and eight different stand treatment programmes (i.e. one unthinned and seven thinning regimes) were applied in simulations over 100 years. The stand treatment programmes differed from each other in the sense that the mean stocking varied in the stand over the rotation. The simulation results were also used as data for a multi-criteria analysis, in which expected utility was calculated with an additive utility model (Paper IV). In this context, it was also utilized a wood products model developed (Paper III), to estimate carbon stocks in wood products. The model based analyses indicated that in unthinned stands, the growth and carbon stock was on an average always higher compared to thinned stands regardless of tree species, sites and climate scenarios compared (Papers I-II). However, in regard to thinning regimes, the one in which the mean stocking was kept an average higher over a rotation compared to the current thinning guidelines, had also a higher growth and timber yield (Paper I). This increased also the mean carbon stock both in the forest ecosystem and in the harvested timber compared to the current thinning guidelines (Paper II). The climate change (regardless of scenarios) in itself enhanced growth, timber yield and carbon stocks in relative terms more in the north than in the south regardless of tree species. The utility was also maximized, regardless of site, tree species and climate scenario applied, by leaving the stand unthinned over a rotation or alternatively by keeping the stocking level higher (e.g. 30% higher) over the simulation compared to the current thinning guidelines (Paper IV). When accurate weights for criteria of timber production, carbon sequestration and dead wood were used to reduce uncertainty, expected utility did not change noticeably. As a conclusion, the selection of stand treatment programme was found to have an important role, regardless of tree species, sites and climate scenarios, on the timber production, but also on other benefits such as carbon sequestration and amount of dead wood in the forest ecosystem.

dissertationes forestales

Stand level analysis on the effects of management and climate change on the growth and timber yield with implications on carbon stocks in boreal forest ecosystem: a model based approach