Repensando el presidencialismo: desafíos y caídas presidenciales en el Cono Sur

RESUMEN: Desde 1978, el 40% de los presidentes electos en Sudamerica han sido desafiados por actores civiles que intentaron forzarlos a dejar sus cargos antes de tiempo. A traves del juicio politico (impeachment) y de renuncias, 23% han caido y han sido reemplazados por civiles. Los presidentes desafiados fueron mas proclives a seguir politicas neoliberales, a estar personalmente implicados en escandalos y a carecer de mayoria parlamentaria en relacion a sus colegas no desafiados. Entre los presidentes desafiados, la presencia o ausencia de grandes protestas callejeras demandando que fueran removidos de sus cargos es un factor crucial en la determinacion de sus destinos. Estos desarrollos cuestionan diversos supuestos centrales acerca de los regimenes presidencialistas: que los mandatos presidenciales son firmemente fijos y que la consecuencia del conflicto politico en el presidencialismo es el quiebre democratico. ABSTRACT: Since 1978, forty percent of elected presidents in South America have been challenged by civilian actors trying to force them to leave office early. Through impeachment and resignations, twenty three percent have fallen and been replaced by civilians. I find that challenged presidents were more likely to pursue neoliberal policies, be personally implicated in scandal, and lack a congressional majority than their unchallenged counterparts. Among challenged presidents, the presence or absence of large street protests demanding they be removed from office is then crucial in determining their fates. These developments confound several core assumptions about presidential regimes: that presidential terms are firmly fixed, that populations cannot withdraw as well as grant presidential mandates, and that the consequences of political conflict in presidentialism are democratic breakdown.