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Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus,  Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis  ( Bd ), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global  Bd  database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the  Bd -climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence  Bd  distributions. Previous research showed that  Bd  distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of  Bd  sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future  Bd  environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how  Bd  spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in  Bd- climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that  Bd  ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of  Bd  on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures