English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Background  Accurately assessing the transmissibility and serial interval of a novel human pathogen is public health priority so that the timing and required strength of interventions may be determined. Recent theoretical work has focused on making best use of data from the initial exponential phase of growth of incidence in large populations.    Methods  We measured generational transmissibility by the basic reproductive number  R  0  and the serial interval by its mean  T   g  . First, we constructed a simulation algorithm for case data arising from a small population of known size with  R  0  and  T   g   also known. We then developed an inferential model for the likelihood of these case data as a function of  R  0  and  T   g  . The model was designed to capture a) any signal of the serial interval distribution in the initial stochastic phase b) the growth rate of the exponential phase and c) the unique combination of  R  0  and  T   g   that generates a specific shape of peak incidence when the susceptible portion of a small population is depleted.    Findings  Extensive repeat simulation and parameter estimation revealed no bias in univariate estimates of either  R  0  and  T   g  . We were also able to simultaneously estimate both  R  0  and  T   g  . However, accurate final estimates could be obtained only much later in the outbreak. In particular, estimates of  T   g   were considerably less accurate in the bivariate case until the peak of incidence had passed.    Conclusions  The basic reproductive number and mean serial interval can be estimated simultaneously in real time during an outbreak of an emerging pathogen. Repeated application of these methods to small scale outbreaks at the start of an epidemic would permit accurate estimates of key parameters.

Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Number and Mean Serial Interval of a Novel Pathogen in a Small, Well-Observed Discrete Population