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Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll  a  and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model’s ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll  a  size-fractionation at temperatures below 2°C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll  a  and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll  a  biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll  a . In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll  a  biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.

Temperature-Correlated Changes in Phytoplankton Community Structure Are Restricted to Polar Waters