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Background  The spread of Bluetongue virus (BTV) among ruminants is caused by movement of infected host animals or by movement of infected  Culicoides  midges, the vector of BTV. Biologically plausible models of  Culicoides  dispersal are necessary for predicting the spread of BTV and are important for planning control and eradication strategies.    Methods  A spatially-explicit simulation model which captures the two underlying population mechanisms, population dynamics and movement, was developed using extensive data from a trapping program for  C. brevitarsis  on the east coast of Australia. A realistic midge flight sub-model was developed and the annual incursion and population establishment of  C. brevitarsis  was simulated. Data from the literature was used to parameterise the model.    Results  The model was shown to reproduce the spread of  C. brevitarsis  southwards along the east Australian coastline in spring, from an endemic population to the north. Such incursions were shown to be reliant on wind-dispersal;  Culicoides  midge active flight on its own was not capable of achieving known rates of southern spread, nor was re-emergence of southern populations due to overwintering larvae. Data from midge trapping programmes were used to qualitatively validate the resulting simulation model.    Conclusions  The model described in this paper is intended to form the vector component of an extended model that will also include BTV transmission. A model of midge movement and population dynamics has been developed in sufficient detail such that the extended model may be used to evaluate the timing and extent of BTV outbreaks. This extended model could then be used as a platform for addressing the effectiveness of spatially targeted vaccination strategies or animal movement bans as BTV spread mitigation measures, or the impact of climate change on the risk and extent of outbreaks. These questions involving incursive  Culicoides  spread cannot be simply addressed with non-spatial models.

A Spatial Simulation Model for the Dispersal of the Bluetongue Vector Culicoides brevitarsis in Australia