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Background  Affordable strategies to prevent treatment failure on first-line regimens among HIV patients are essential for the long-term success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO recommends using routinely collected data such as adherence to drug-refill visits as early warning indicators. We examined the association between adherence to drug-refill visits and long-term virologic and immunologic failure among non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) recipients in South Africa.    Methods  In 2008, 456 patients on NNRTI-based ART for a median of 44 months (range 12–99 months; 1,510 person-years) were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study in Soweto. Charts were reviewed for clinical characteristics before and during ART. Multivariable logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis assessed associations with virologic (two repeated VL>50 copies/ml) and immunologic failure (as defined by WHO).    Results  After a median of 15 months on ART, 19% (n = 88) and 19% (n = 87) had failed virologically and immunologically respectively. A cumulative adherence of <95% to drug-refill visits was significantly associated with both virologic and immunologic failure (p<0.01). In the final multivariable model, risk factors for virologic failure were incomplete adherence (OR 2.8, 95%CI 1.2–6.7), and previous exposure to single-dose nevirapine or any other antiretrovirals (adj. OR 2.1, 95%CI 1.2–3.9), adjusted for age and sex. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the virologic failure rate by month 48 was 19% vs. 37% among adherent and non-adherent patients respectively (logrank p value = 0.02).    Conclusion  One in five failed virologically after a median of 15 months on ART. Adherence to drug-refill visits works as an early warning indicator for both virologic and immunologic failure.

Adherence to Drug-Refill Is a Useful Early Warning Indicator of Virologic and Immunologic Failure among HIV Patients on First-Line ART in South Africa