Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency | Zendy

Jeffrey Shaman | Zendy; Jonathan F. Day | Zendy

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Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency

Author(s) -

Jeffrey Shaman,

Jonathan F. Day

Publication year - 2007

Publication title -

plos one

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99

H-Index - 332

ISSN - 1932-6203

DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0000331

Subject(s) - forcing (mathematics) , population , transmission (telecommunications) , biology , ecology , environmental science , climate change , climatology , atmospheric sciences , environmental health , physics , medicine , geology , electrical engineering , engineering

The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases.

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