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Dynamic network biomarkers (DNB) can identify the critical state or tipping point of a disease, thereby predicting rather than diagnosing the disease. However, it is difficult to apply the DNB theory to clinical practice because evaluating DNB at the critical state required the data of multiple samples on each individual, which are generally not available, and thus limit the applicability of DNB. In this study, we developed a novel method, i.e., single-sample DNB (sDNB), to detect early-warning signals or critical states of diseases in individual patients with only a single sample for each patient, thus opening a new way to predict diseases in a personalized way. In contrast to the information of differential expressions used in traditional biomarkers to “diagnose disease”, sDNB is based on the information of differential associations, thereby having the ability to “predict disease” or “diagnose near-future disease”. Applying this method to datasets for influenza virus infection and cancer metastasis led to accurate identification of the critical states or correct prediction of the immediate diseases based on individual samples. We successfully identified the critical states or tipping points just before the appearance of disease symptoms for influenza virus infection and the onset of distant metastasis for individual patients with cancer, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness and efficiency of our method for quantifying critical states at the single-sample level.

Quantifying critical states of complex diseases using single-sample dynamic network biomarkers