Empirical bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas | Zendy

Renato Assunção | Zendy; Carl P. Schmertmann | Zendy; Joseph E. Potter | Zendy; Suzana Cavenaghi | Zendy

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Empirical bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas

Author(s) -

Renato Assunção,

Carl P. Schmertmann,

Joseph E. Potter,

Suzana Cavenaghi

Publication year - 2005

Publication title -

demography

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.099

H-Index - 129

eISSN - 1533-7790

pISSN - 0070-3370

DOI - 10.1353/dem.2005.0022

Subject(s) - bayes' theorem , estimation , small area estimation , statistics , econometrics , geography , computer science , mathematics , bayesian probability , economics , management

In this article, we analyze empirical Bayes (EB) methods for estimating small-area rate schedules. We develop EB methods that treat schedules as vectors and use adaptive neighborhoods to keep estimates appropriately local. This method estimates demographic rates for local subpopulations by borrowing strength not only from similar individuals elsewhere but also from other groups in the same area and from regularities in schedules across locations. EB is substantially better than standard methods when rates have strong spatial and age patterns. We illustrate this method with estimates of age-specific fertility schedules for over 3,800 Brazilian municipalities.

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