Use of historical controls for animal experiments.

Statistical methods for the use of historical control data in testing for a trend in proportions in carcinogenicity rodent bioassays are reviewed. Asymptotic properties of the Hoel-Yanagawa exact conditional tests are developed and compared with the Tarone test. It is indicated that the Hoel-Yanagawa test is more powerful than the Tarone test. These tests depend on the beta-binomial parameters which are estimated from historical data. The goodness of fit of beta-binomial distributions to historical data is illustrated by application to the historical control database in the National Toxicology Program. Finally, sensitivities of the exact conditional test to the historical information is discussed and a conservative use of the test is considered.