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This presentation focuses entirely on the use and evaluation of regression analysis applied to ecologic data as a method to study the effects of ambient air pollution on mortality rates. Using extensive national data on mortality, air quality and socio-economic status regression analyses are used to study the influence of air quality on mortality. The analytic methods and data are selected in such a way that direct comparisons can be made with other ecologic regression studies of mortality and air quality. Analyses are performed by use of two types of geographic areas, age-specific mortality of both males and females and three pollutants (total suspended particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide). The overall results indicate no persuasive evidence exists of a link between air quality and general mortality levels. Additionally, a lack of consistency between the present results and previous published work is noted. Overall, it is concluded that linear regression analysis applied to nationally collected ecologic data cannot be used to usefully infer a causal relationship between air quality and mortality which is in direct contradiction to other major published studies.

Ecologic regression analysis and the study of the influence of air quality on mortality.