Likelihood Ratio Gradient Estimation for Steady-State Parameters
Author(s) -
Peter W. Glynn,
Mariana OlveraCravioto
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
stochastic systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1946-5238
DOI - 10.1287/stsy.2018.0023
Subject(s) - estimator , mathematics , markov chain monte carlo , ergodic theory , markov chain , state space , sequence (biology) , differentiable function , distribution (mathematics) , monte carlo method , parameterized complexity , asymptotic distribution , state (computer science) , statistical physics , mathematical analysis , statistics , algorithm , physics , biology , genetics
We consider a discrete-time Markov chain $\boldsymbol{\Phi}$ on a general state-space ${\sf X}$, whose transition probabilities are parameterized by a real-valued vector $\boldsymbol{\theta}$. Under the assumption that $\boldsymbol{\Phi}$ is geometrically ergodic with corresponding stationary distribution $\pi(\boldsymbol{\theta})$, we are interested in estimating the gradient $\nabla \alpha(\boldsymbol{\theta})$ of the steady-state expectation $$\alpha(\boldsymbol{\theta}) = \pi( \boldsymbol{\theta}) f.$$ To this end, we first give sufficient conditions for the differentiability of $\alpha(\boldsymbol{\theta})$ and for the calculation of its gradient via a sequence of finite horizon expectations. We then propose two different likelihood ratio estimators and analyze their limiting behavior.
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