From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts
Author(s) -
Jehoshua Eliashberg,
Sam K. Hui,
Z. John Zhang
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
management science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.954
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1526-5501
pISSN - 0025-1909
DOI - 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0668
Subject(s) - scripting language , studio , screenwriting , computer science , process (computing) , domain (mathematical analysis) , return on investment , film industry , multimedia , artificial intelligence , visual arts , movie theater , production (economics) , art , economics , programming language , telecommunications , mathematical analysis , mathematics , macroeconomics
Movie studios often have to choose among thousands of scripts to decide which ones to turn into movies. Despite the huge amount of money at stake, this process--known as green-lighting in the movie industry--is largely a guesswork based on experts' experience and intuitions. In this paper, we propose a new approach to help studios evaluate scripts that will then lead to more profitable green-lighting decisions. Our approach combines screenwriting domain knowledge, natural-language processing techniques, and statistical learning methods to forecast a movie's return on investment (ROI) based only on textual information available in movie scripts. We test our model in a holdout decision task to show that our model is able to significantly improve a studio's gross ROI.entertainment industry, new product development, forecasting, contingency data analysis
Accelerating Research
Robert Robinson Avenue,
Oxford Science Park, Oxford
OX4 4GP, United Kingdom
Address
John Eccles HouseRobert Robinson Avenue,
Oxford Science Park, Oxford
OX4 4GP, United Kingdom