Possible or Probable? An Experiential Approach to Probability Literacy

This paper presents the design for and results from an experiential learning activity for beginning statistics or decision analysis students. University students in a required business statistics class are given the task of asking subjects to rank 10 commonly heard uncertainty phrases words such as “possible” and “probable” in order from those that convey the most likelihood to those that indicate the least. The learning goals are communication, analysis of field results, and reflection upon the experience, and these are accomplished while exploring the concepts of subjective probability assessment as they are being learned in class. Students report their results and write a reflective report that covers their findings, the experience of working with participants, and, most importantly, their insights about language and the public's understanding of uncertainty. As students realize that those who assess probability are not always those who use the assessments for decision making, they become aware of the potential for confusion. The purpose of this article is not to conduct a statistical study of the rankings of the phrases, but rather to discuss the value of this experiential learning assignment for beginning students.