What Are the Odds? A Structured Approach for Unstructured Problems | Zendy

Matthew D. Bailey | Zendy; Michael J. Fry | Zendy

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What Are the Odds? A Structured Approach for Unstructured Problems

Author(s) -

Matthew D. Bailey,

Michael J. Fry

Publication year - 2010

Publication title -

informs transactions on education

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.161

H-Index - 3

ISSN - 1532-0545

DOI - 10.1287/ited.1090.0043

Subject(s) - odds , variety (cybernetics) , computer science , class (philosophy) , decomposition , identification (biology) , event (particle physics) , artificial intelligence , machine learning , ecology , logistic regression , botany , physics , quantum mechanics , biology

Decision makers are often faced with ill-defined problems such as determining the odds of unlikely occurrences. However, class settings often explicitly provide such values within problem sets or case studies. In this paper, we discuss an incident of a waitress at a bar being shown her own stolen identification. Using this problem, we motivate the use of mathematical modeling to decompose a problem to determine the odds of a rare event. Similar problem decomposition methods can be used in a variety of business and engineering problems.

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